Statistical analysis of the primary outcome in acute stroke trials

Common outcome scales in acute stroke trials are ordered categorical or pseudocontinuous in structure but most have been analyzed as binary measures. The use of fixed dichotomous analysis of ordered categorical outcomes after stroke (such as the modified Rankin Scale) is rarely the most statistically efficient approach and usually requires a larger sample size to demonstrate efficacy than other approaches. Preferred statistical approaches include sliding dichotomous, ordinal, or continuous analyses. Because there is no best approach that will work for all acute stroke trials, it is vital that studies are designed with a full understanding of the type of patients to be enrolled (in particular their case mix, which will be critically dependent on their age and severity), the potential mechanism by which the intervention works (ie, will it tend to move all patients somewhat, or some patients a lot, and is a common hazard present), a realistic assessment of the likely effect size, and therefore the necessary sample size, and an understanding of what the intervention will cost if implemented in clinical practice. If these approaches are followed, then the risk of missing useful treatment effects for acute stroke will diminish

Results of the MRI substudy of the intravenous magnesium efficacy in stroke trial

<p><b>Background and Purpose:</b>Although magnesium is neuroprotective in animal stroke models, no clinical benefit was confirmed in the Intravenous Magnesium Efficacy in Stroke (IMAGES) trial of acute stroke patients. The Magnetic Resonance in IMAGES (MR IMAGES) substudy investigated the effects of magnesium on the imaging surrogate outcome of infarct growth.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> IMAGES trial patients in participating centers were randomized to receive either intravenous magnesium or placebo within 12 hours of stroke onset. Infarct growth was defined as volume difference between baseline diffusion-weighted imaging and day 90 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery image lesions. Patients who died were imputed the largest infarct growth observed.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> Among the 90 patients included in the primary analysis, there was no difference in infarct growth (median absolute growth, P=0.639; median percentage growth, P=0.616; proportion with any growth, P=0.212) between the 46 treated with magnesium and 44 with placebo. Infarct growth correlated with NIHSS score change from baseline to day 90. There was a trend showing baseline serum glucose correlated with infarct growth with magnesium treatment, but not in the placebo group. The mismatch frequency was reduced from 73% to 47% by increasing the mismatch threshold from >20% to >100% of core volume.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Infarct growth, confirmed here as a surrogate for clinical progression, was similar between magnesium and placebo treatment, paralleling the main IMAGES trial clinical outcomes. Glucose was a covariate for infarct growth with magnesium treatment. A more stringent mismatch threshold to define penumbra more appropriately would have excluded half of the patients in this 12-hour time window stroke study.</p&gt

Comparison of performance achievement award recognition with primary stroke center certification for acute ischemic stroke care.

BackgroundHospital certification and recognition programs represent 2 independent but commonly used systems to distinguish hospitals, yet they have not been directly compared. This study assessed acute ischemic stroke quality of care measure conformity by hospitals receiving Primary Stroke Center (PSC) certification and those receiving the American Heart Association's Get With The Guidelines-Stroke (GWTG-Stroke) Performance Achievement Award (PAA) recognition.Methods and resultsThe patient and hospital characteristics as well as performance/quality measures for acute ischemic stroke from 1356 hospitals participating in the GWTG-Stroke Program 2010-2012 were compared. Hospitals were classified as PAA+/PSC+ (hospitals n = 410, patients n = 169,302), PAA+/PSC- (n = 415, n = 129,454), PAA-/PSC+ (n = 88, n = 26,386), and PAA-/PSC- (n = 443, n = 75,565). A comprehensive set of stroke measures were compared with adjustment for patient and hospital characteristics. Patient characteristics were similar by PAA and PSC status but PAA-/PSC- hospitals were more likely to be smaller and nonteaching. Measure conformity was highest for PAA+/PSC+ and PAA+/PSC- hospitals, intermediate for PAA-/PSC+ hospitals, and lowest for PAA-/PSC- hospitals (all-or-none care measure 91.2%, 91.2%, 84.3%, and 76.9%, respectively). After adjustment for patient and hospital characteristics, PAA+/PSC+, PAA+/PSC-, and PAA-/PSC+ hospitals had 3.15 (95% CIs 2.86 to 3.47); 3.23 (2.93 to 3.56) and 1.72 (1.47 to 2.00), higher odds for providing all indicated stroke performance measures to patients compared with PAA-/PSC- hospitals.ConclusionsWhile both PSC certification and GWTG-Stroke PAA recognition identified hospitals providing higher conformity with care measures for patients hospitalized with acute ischemic stroke, PAA recognition was a more robust identifier of hospitals with better performance

Patterns, predictors, variations, and temporal trends in emergency medical service hospital prenotification for acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND#ENTITYSTARTX02014;: Emergency medical services (EMS) hospital prenotification of an incoming stroke patient is guideline recommended as a means of increasing the timeliness with which stroke patients are evaluated and treated. Still, data are limited with regard to national use of, variations in, and temporal trends in EMS prenotification and associated predictors of its use. METHODS AND RESULTS#ENTITYSTARTX02014;: We examined 371 988 patients with acute ischemic stroke who were transported by EMS and enrolled in 1585 hospitals participating in Get With The Guidelines-Stroke from April 1, 2003, through March 31, 2011. Prenotification occurred in 249 197 EMS-transported patients (67.0%) and varied widely by hospital (range, 0% to 100%). Substantial variations by geographic regions and by state, ranging from 19.7% in Washington, DC, to 93.4% in Montana, also were noted. Patient factors associated with lower use of prenotification included older age, diabetes mellitus, and peripheral vascular disease. Prenotification was less likely for black patients than for white patients (adjusted odds ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.92-0.97, P<0.0001). Hospital factors associated with greater EMS prenotification use were absence of academic affiliation, higher annual volume of tissue plasminogen activator administration, and geographic location outside the Northeast. Temporal improvements in prenotification rates showed a modest general increase, from 58.0% in 2003 to 67.3% in 2011 (P temporal trend <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS#ENTITYSTARTX02014;: EMS hospital prenotification is guideline recommended, yet among patients transported to Get With The Guidelines-Stroke hospitals it is not provided for 1 in 3 EMS-arriving patients with acute ischemic stroke and varies substantially by hospital, state, and region. These results support the need for enhanced implementation of stroke systems of care. (J Am Heart Assoc. 2012;1:e002345 doi: 10.1161/JAHA.112.002345.)

Relationship of national institutes of health stroke scale to 30-day mortality in medicare beneficiaries with acute ischemic stroke.

BackgroundThe National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), a well-validated tool for assessing initial stroke severity, has previously been shown to be associated with mortality in acute ischemic stroke. However, the relationship, optimal categorization, and risk discrimination with the NIHSS for predicting 30-day mortality among Medicare beneficiaries with acute ischemic stroke has not been well studied.Methods and resultsWe analyzed data from 33102 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries treated at 404 Get With The Guidelines-Stroke hospitals between April 2003 and December 2006 with NIHSS documented. The 30-day mortality rate by NIHSS as a continuous variable and by risk-tree determined or prespecified categories were analyzed, with discrimination of risk quantified by the c-statistic. In this cohort, mean age was 79.0 years and 58% were female. The median NIHSS score was 5 (25th to 75th percentile 2 to 12). There were 4496 deaths in the first 30 days (13.6%). There was a strong graded relation between increasing NIHSS score and higher 30-day mortality. The 30-day mortality rates for acute ischemic stroke by NIHSS categories were as follows: 0 to 7, 4.2%; 8 to 13, 13.9%; 14 to 21, 31.6%; 22 to 42, 53.5%. A model with NIHSS alone provided excellent discrimination whether included as a continuous variable (c-statistic 0.82 [0.81 to 0.83]), 4 categories (c-statistic 0.80 [0.79 to 0.80]), or 3 categories (c-statistic 0.79 [0.78 to 0.79]).ConclusionsThe NIHSS provides substantial prognostic information regarding 30-day mortality risk in Medicare beneficiaries with acute ischemic stroke. This index of stroke severity is a very strong discriminator of mortality risk, even in the absence of other clinical information, whether used as a continuous or categorical risk determinant. (J Am Heart Assoc. 2012;1:42-50.)

Patterns of Care Quality and Prognosis Among Hospitalized Ischemic Stroke Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

Background: Relatively little is known about the quality of care and outcomes for hospitalized ischemic stroke patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We examined quality of care and in‐hospital prognoses among patients with CKD in the Get With The Guidelines–Stroke (GWTG‐Stroke) program Methods and Results: We analyzed 679 827 patients hospitalized with ischemic stroke from 1564 US centers participating in the GWTG‐Stroke program between January 2009 and December 2012. Use of 7 predefined ischemic stroke performance measures, composite “defect‐free” care compliance, and in‐hospital mortality were examined based on glomerular filtration rate (GFR) categorized as a dichotomous (+CKD as <60) or rank‐ordered variable: normal (≥90), mild (≥60 to <90), moderate (≥30 to <60), severe (≥15 to <30), and kidney failure (<15 or dialysis). There were 236 662 (35%) ischemic stroke patients with CKD. Patients with severe renal dysfunction or failure were significantly less likely to receive guideline‐based therapies. Compared with patients with normal kidney function (≥90), those with CKD (adjusted OR 0.91 [95% CI: 0.89 to 0.92]), moderate dysfunction (adjusted OR 0.94 [95% CI: 0.92 to 0.97]), severe dysfunction (adjusted OR 0.80 [95% CI: 0.77 to 0.84]), or failure (adjusted OR 0.72 [95% CI: 0.68 to 0.0.76]), were less likely to receive 100% defect‐free care measure compliance. Inpatient mortality was higher for patients with CKD (adjusted odds ratio 1.44 [95% CI: 1.40 to 1.47]), and progressively rose with more severe renal dysfunction. Conclusions: Despite higher in‐hospital mortality rates, ischemic stroke patients with CKD, especially those with greater severity of renal dysfunction, were less likely to receive important guideline‐recommended therapies

Shock Index Predicts Patient‐Related Clinical Outcomes in Stroke

The Get With The Guidelines–Stroke (GWTG-Stroke) program is currently supported in part by a charitable contribution from Bristol-Myers Squibb/Sanofi Pharmaceutical Partnership and the American Heart Association Pharmaceutical Roundtable. GWTG-Stroke has been funded in the past through support from Boehringer-Ingelheim and Merck. These funding agencies did not participate in the design or analysis, article preparation, or approval of this study.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Shock Index Predicts Patient‐Related Clinical Outcomes in Stroke

The Get With The Guidelines–Stroke (GWTG-Stroke) program is currently supported in part by a charitable contribution from Bristol-Myers Squibb/Sanofi Pharmaceutical Partnership and the American Heart Association Pharmaceutical Roundtable. GWTG-Stroke has been funded in the past through support from Boehringer-Ingelheim and Merck. These funding agencies did not participate in the design or analysis, article preparation, or approval of this study.Peer reviewedPublisher PD